The Rooster in the Coal Mine
President Macron of France just appointed his fifth Prime Minister in less than two years. French debt has exploded and has reached 125% of GDP, well above the EU's target of 60%. Long-term bond rates have now surpassed Italian rates. The country is coming to a literal standstill.
The bureaucratic aristocracy is in shock. The country needs to get serious about its finances. Everybody has to make sacrifices, pay more taxes, work more and eat less brioche. The country that introduced the 35-hour work week and the five week vacation is now suggesting that the number of holidays should be cut. France is indeed in a crisis.
And what is the response from the top? Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose. Macron has nominated another powerless Prime Minister, Monsieur Lecornu. Another coalition of everybody-but-the-"far-right" will inevitably go the way of its predecessor. Governing the country with communists, socialists and moderates, both from the left and the right, is just not sustainable. This potpourri alliance is doomed to fail again and the new Prime Minister will be history soon. The country is asking for new policies, not more sacrifices from the private sector. The country wants less bureaucracy, fewer regulations, less immigration and less taxation. People want the government off their backs. Enough is enough.
So, what happens next? President Macron is holding on to his job for the remaining two years. He is no De Gaulle, who left office voluntarily the very day he lost voters’ support. Even so, Macron will have no choice but to dismantle Parliament where he no longer has a majority to support his policies. The country would be better off if he did so promptly. France’s Assemblée Nationale is in a stalemate.
The freshly announced Prime Minister comes from the President's centrist party, which has an appalling 15% support among voters. The socialists felt it was their turn to lead and have already made clear they will sit this one out. The far left is organizing national strikes and the center right is navel gazing as usual.
Polls currently predict that if an election were held today, Le Pen’s National Front would win with 33% of the vote. The more Macron hangs on, the likelier her party will gain in popularity. With her opposition so fractured, France's two-round election system could give her party an absolute majority in Parliament. In such a scenario, Macron becomes a complete lame duck. He appoints Le Pen's co-leader, the very young Jordan Bardella, Prime Minister. Marine Le Pen prepares to run for the presidency at the end of Macron's term in 2027.
This is how De Gaulle’s Fifth Republic was designed to work. It was meant to allow for a functional majority. Instead, today's stalemate, caused by a coalition of multiple and opposing parties, is reminiscent of the dysfunctional fourth republic. The men and women running contemporary France have found a way to avoid the real political alternation meant by De Gaulle's constitution. If the establishment fails to keep the National Front from gaining power in Parliament, they will surely turn to "lawfare" to prevent the loathed Marine Le Pen from becoming president. Jordan Bardella might then resign as Prime Minsiter and run for President. If he does a good job, he may well become the youngest head of State since Napoleon.
France is going through major turmoil today, but France is just the rooster in the coal mine. Malaise is spreading throughout Europe and the European Union. Weak national leaders and all-powerful bureaucrats are trying desperately to stop a tide of "populism", but the dams are cracking everywhere.